A full-scale Chinese attack on Taiwan remains unlikely – but Beijing has alternatives by Neue Zürcher Zeitung

Xi Jinping has repeatedly signaled his intent to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. Despite repeated threats and intensified military preparations, most experts remain skeptical that China is currently capable of a full-scale invasion. But China has other options: tactics that apply military pressure without crossing the threshold into outright war.

This article examines three potential scenarios in which China could escalate tensions while avoiding direct conflict. Using maps, scrollytelling, and data visualization it illustrates how Beijing might implement a gradual escalation strategy to isolate and ultimately dominate the island. The analysis contextualizes the impact of these strategies on Taiwan’s economy, energy supply, and sovereignty.

The article visually explains how military tactics that operate in a grey zone can be used in a slow war of attrition. It also highlights which of these tactics are already in play, shedding light on developments that might shape global politics for years to come.